The Political Wildcard

 Some things seem to be taken as givens:

1. Republicans will take back the house and/or senate this November

2. Trump will be the 2024 republican presidential candidate. 

3. The local election systems are being rigged with Trump supporters so he can get the "found" votes to win. 

There is a political wildcard that no one is talking about. A wildcard that makes all of those givens suddenly become just one option. It's the silent voters. Those that don't talk politics so, you don't know where they stand. The ones that say they don't follow politics. Those who only vote sometimes. The voices we aren't hearing. 

They aren't the ones responding to polls. We hear the voices of protestors and rally goers. We hear the voices in pod casts, social media posts, and in so many other places. We think we know what voters want and are thinking. That's true for some. I chose to be an open book about my politics. But not everyone does. A lot of people think Josh is a republican and he is most certainly a moderate democrat. He's always asking me, "why do people think I am a republican?" He generally doesn't talk politics at work. Although our new neighbor who used to work with Josh is a Biden supporter for sure! I am looking forward to that! 

So, how can the silent voters turn the givens into the surprise of the year(s)? 

Republicans are gerrymandering like crazy. They base that on registered voters. They cater hard to the loud republicans thinking that's a given for an election win. You win the primary you win the race! This is where they are wrong. They ignore independent voters and the fact that silent voters tend not to vote in primaries. They wait for the general elections. The more extreme the candidate in the general election, the less likely silent voters will go for them. Unfortunately, the extreme candidate in a lot of places are the ones winning primaries. Democrats are much more likely to vote for the moderate candidate in the primaries. 

They are also forgetting a side effect of all of those new harder to vote election laws and gerrymandering. Silent voters are now angry at them and are more likely to vote for their opponent just to make voting easy again and to make sure their vote gets counted! Those laws will backfire in swing states like Arizona and Georgia!

Is Trump a given in 2024? Probably to be the candidate. But it's far from a given he will win. Out of all of the republican voices who support his "I won" lie tantrum, there are all of those silent voters who voted for him and are turned off because of the insurrection. 

All Trump talks about is the 2020 election. He doesn't have a plan for what he would want to do in 2024. So, he assumes all of his 2020 voters are with him. They aren't. A large number of independent and silent voters who did vote for him agree that PRESIDENT BIDEN won fairly. After seeing how he behaved last time, they are less likely to vote for him again. It will likely be a more embarrassing loss then 2020!  

As for rigged local election systems. Silent voters and independents are noticing that too. They are seeing who is trying to take their vote away. Those same candidates are again catering to the loud extreme republicans. There is no guarantee the silent voters and independent voters agree with what they are doing. They can run Trump friendly candidates. But will those candidates win? 

The silent voters that are worried about a Trump candidate and will be much more likely to vote for their opponent in swing states. That's why Arizona Governor Ducey said he opposed the recount. He knows if he supported it, those are silent and independent votes for his opponent. If democrats nominate moderates for the general elections across the board, we can secure democracy! Silent and independent voters know that. 

We can't keep talking about the givens as givens. Those assumptions are based on loud voices, not the silent ones. Even a poll targeted to those groups would be inaccurate. We will not know until votes are counted. But they are silently watching in the background. Watching and reading the words and actions of the politicians and candidates. They have thoughts, they just aren't sharing them.