Election 2024 Vs. Election 2028

 For obvious reasons we are talking about the likely rematch next year between President Biden and FORMER President Trump. But what happens next year effects the 2028 election too. It's time we talk about that. 

Things are close but the bottom line when people step in the voting box is going to amount to this:

Vote Red Not Instead voters = Trump but much more of them will do it because they always vote republican and NOT because they think he's great. 

Vote Blue No Matter Who voters = Biden but they do it while thinking about Kamala Harris.

Swing voters = Most will be Biden. It's a close election simply with fewer swing voters then in the past. But they will be thinking about Trump's indictments, his election denialism, and his autocratic tendencies. That's going to be more then they can take. 

Opinion | Voting in primaries has vanished - The Washington Post

I read that article today. by Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post.  Mostly extremists vote in the primaries and the "general election only" people are more likely to just stick to their party even if they hate the candidate. Most swing voters don't follow politics and vote for the sane option in the general election. 

"Only 68,000 voters, or 12 percent of the number who were eligible. We don’t have a House that represents voters because most voters don’t participate."

If Biden were progressive, it would be more of a toss-up. But Biden is very moderate and has passed a lot of things on a bi-partisan basis. All the MAGAs in the house are doing between the baseless impeachment inquiry and the shutdown is reminding voters that democrats are the ones willing to meet in the middle. In fact, the Senate signed sealed and delivered the house a bi-partisan stopgap bill that easily could have gotten house democrat AND moderate republican support, enough to pass. But McCarthy refused to bring it to a vote because of his MAGA crowd. 

So, Biden wins a second term. What about 2028? Trump will be 83 but still legally can run. What about the too old argument? That is only a problem when democrats are running. Democrats will also be in a jam. The last time the same party served for 12 years was Reagan and the elder Bush. In recent years most (except for Trump) serve two terms then the Presidency flips. 

But this might be the one situation where democrats can pull off that 12 year or more thing. It literally all comes down to the candidates. For democrats I see Sec. Pete Buttigieg as the nominee. He's the true heir apparent and will be well polished by then. His VP will be a moderate woman like Gretchen Whitmire. 

The wildcard is the republican nominee. If Trump loses this time, it's harder to claim TWO stolen elections. He's a loser and this proves that. So, he might run in 2028 but, is he the nominee? I don't think so. I think GOP primary voters will want a nominee that is NOT prone to elections getting stolen. The nominee is still likely to be a MAGA extremist crackpot. DeSantis will be out because all of his extreme laws get struck down at least partially by the courts. Josh Howley with Marjory Taylor Greene as the VP is the like GOP ticket. 

So, Sec. Buttigieg verses Sen. Howley. It's the same voter decisions and too many swing voters are tired of the MAGAs. I think we can do it. I also think if we do, THAT will be what turns the GOP moderate again.